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Uncertainty intervals (UIs)

A range of values that reflects the “certainty” of an estimate (calculated number). Larger uncertainty intervals can result from limited data availability, small studies, and conflicting data (indicating scientists are less certain that the data are accurate). Smaller uncertainty intervals can result from extensive data availability, large studies, and data that are consistent across sources (indicating scientists are more certain that the data are accurate).

In State of Global Air, estimates of scientific uncertainty are provided for every value in the form of 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), representing the range between the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the distribution of possible values.